The Singularity: Why it Will Not Happen and Why it Can Happen
The singularity is a hypothetical scenario in time (in the future) where technological advancements grow at a rate exponentially greater than human intelligence. The blog title seems to be some sort of word play in that I assert that two contradictory, mutually exclusive events will or can happen. For 1984 (by George Orwell) fans, this may be seen as somewhat an instance of double-think — understandably so. However, I hold two opinions on the matter, and as a mathematics and statistics enthusiast, I assure you that these opposing opinions are inspired by the Bayes theorem, allowing us to compute the probability of an event happening given that another event related to it has already occurred. For example, you can use the Bayes theorem to compute the probability of there being rain tomorrow (event A) given that we observed a massive cloud cover today (event B).
Now, within the context of the Singularity, we can try and hypothesize the probability of this future scenario occurring provided that other events have already occurred. What are these events? one might ask. Before I answer this question, let us look at where the theory of the Technological Singularity originated from.
The concept of the Technological Singularity originated from Vernor Vinge, a science fiction author and retired Math Professor, in the 1980s. Futurist Ray Kurzweil popularized the theory and performed data analytics to identify the point of occurrence. Cognitive scientist, Ben Goertzel, sees the Technological Singularity as a point in time where technological advancements occur so rapidly that it seems instantaneous to the human mind. One of the most famous quotes in Artificial Intelligence is from I. J Good and goes:
The first truly intelligent machine will be the last invention that humanity needs to make.
It is important to note that the Technological Singularity is not only about Artificial Intelligence, however, Artificial Intelligence is the biggest and most powerful technology driving the Technological Singularity. Within the Technological Singularity itself we have other technologies such as Nanotechnology, Femtotechnology, Life Extension, Mind Uploading, Artificial Intelligence, Genetic Engineering and Advanced Energy Technology. It is hinted by AI experts that all these technologies are expected to advance at around the same time and it should be quite obvious how they have tons of ways in which they can boost each other. Computer Science, Physics, Chemistry and Biology all finding ways to boost each other and make each other more useful. We can somehow say the more we advance in Computer Science, the more we advance in all these other fields, similarly, the more we advance in Biology the more we advance in all these other fields. The same being true for the other unmentioned fields (Physics and Chemistry). It is the coming together of all these advancements that will create the disruption titled The Technological Singularity.
Now that we have discussed what the Technological Singularity is and where it, as a concept, actually came from, let us answer the question about events leading to the Singularity.
Event 1: Computers passing the Turing Test
According to Ray Kurzweil, this event is crucial for the Singularity. The Turing Test aims to determine if machines can think by testing if a computer can convince an interrogator that it is human. Passing the test implies “general intelligence,” making computers exponentially more intelligent.
A Turing test is a simple test which can be stated as follows:
Turing Test
Imagine an interrogator who can type English questions to two agents, A and B, who are in another room. A and B in turn type responses to the interrogator’s questions. The interrogator knows that one of the two agents is a person and the other is a computer. His job is to figure out which is which. The job of both A and B is to try to convince the interrogator that they are human. The computer passes the test if it wins and fools the interrogator into thinking it is the person. (The Turing Test was initially called the Imitation Game by Allan Turing).
It is important to know that this test was meant to find the answer to the question, “Can machines think?”. However, the Chinese Room Argument raises objections, questioning if passing the Turing Test genuinely represents thinking.
Chinese Room Argument
Imagine a person who speaks no Chinese but is locked in a room with filing cabinets full of slips of paper. On each slip of paper is written, in Chinese, a question and an answer. Now suppose that an interrogator slides questions, also written in Chinese, under the door. The job of the person inside the room is to find the slip that matches the question, copy down the answer, as given on the slip, and slide it back out the door. To an outside observer it may appear that the person in the room knows Chinese and can think about answers to questions. But, since we know that he/she does not know any Chinese, we know that all that is happening is symbol lookup, not thinking.
My argument I propose as an objection against computers passing the Turing Test is instinct is a significant aspect of human intelligence, and it is challenging for machines to possess such innate knowledge of their environment without human input. An instinct is generally defined as an inborn pattern of behaviour often responsive to specific stimuli; an example being altruistic instincts in social animals. By instinct, babies connect with their mothers whilst they are not told to do so. Can computers/machines achieve such a level of relation with the environment and different organisms within that environment? Already we are seeing that has not happened and most probably will never happen — a computer, after its inception, to possess an instinctive knowing of what it is (self-awareness) and the environment around it without any need for human input — what do you think are the chances of that happening?
Let us consider computer scientist (also known to be the godfather of virtual reality) Jaron Lanier’s objection to the Singularity where he states that:
“I do not think the technology is creating itself. It’s not an autonomous process. The reason to believe in human agency over technological determinism is that you can then have an economy where people earn their own way and invent their own lives. If you structure a society on not emphasizing individual human agency, it’s the same thing operationally as denying people clout, dignity, and self-determination … to embrace the idea of the Singularity would be a celebration of bad data and bad politics.”
Event 2: Quantum Computing
Quantum computing is a rapidly evolving field that utilizes the principles of quantum mechanics to perform computations with exponentially higher processing power than classical computers. When quantum computing reaches a level of maturity, it has the potential to solve complex problems in various fields, such as cryptography, optimization, and simulations, that are currently infeasible for classical computers. This advancement could significantly accelerate scientific and technological progress and contribute to the emergence of the Singularity. As already stated, advances in one field that is linked to the Singularity implies an advancement in any other field that, too, is linked to the Singularity. In this case, this is, just like event 1, a technological advancement in Computer Science.
Event 3: Mind Uploading
Mind uploading, also known as whole brain emulation, is a hypothetical process of copying or transferring a person’s mind, including memories and consciousness, into a digital or artificial substrate. If successful, mind uploading could lead to digital immortality and the ability to transfer human minds into advanced artificial bodies or virtual environments. This technology would transform our understanding of identity, consciousness, and what it means to be human. I, for one, do not think this is something feasible, mainly because consciousness is still under debate as a concept. It is an extremely ambiguous concept that currently has no universal definition. Let us consider subjective experience as an argument. Mind uploading involves capturing and transferring the subjective experience of an individual’s consciousness. However, subjective experiences such as emotions, sensations and perceptions still remain poorly understood. Therefore, replicating these subjective aspects of consciousness accurately and fully in a digital form presents some big hurdles which I believe to be impossible to do.
If, however, whole brain emulation is achieved then it would imply we can achieve Artificial General Intelligence and therefore, event 1 will occur and computers will pass the Turing Test. Since the contents of the mind will be in digital form, it will imply that we will be able to better manipulate memories and consciousness. Further implying the possibility of replicating consciousness. If that happens then self perpetuating technological advancements will be inevitable.
Event 4: AI Sentience (General AI)
This is the last event I will regard in this blog. General AI refers to artificial intelligence systems that possess human-like intelligence and capabilities across a broad range of tasks. Unlike specialized AI, which is designed for specific tasks, general AI would be versatile and adaptable, approaching or surpassing human cognitive abilities. The development of true AI sentience, where machines have subjective experiences and self-awareness, could have profound societal implications and accelerate the path to the Singularity. Note how the occurrence of event 3 can lead to the occurrence of event 1 and event 4. And also, another possibility is that event 1 can lead to event 4.
Each event represents a significant advancement in science and technology, and their convergence could lead to a paradigm shift in human civilization. However, it is essential to note that the realization of the Technological Singularity remains speculative, and many ethical, societal, and technical challenges must be addressed to harness its potential benefits responsibly. Ethics is one of the biggest reasons why I believe it is impossible to the occurrence of the Technological Singularity. But I consider Theodore John Kaczynski’s (the Unabomber) words in this context where he claimed that as technology progresses, it becomes increasingly difficult for individuals (hence society) to escape its influence and control. He also hinted how it becomes tempting to further technological advances despite any ethical backlash purely because we would be knowing there exists another possibility to the whole experience of living.
The human body is too complex. Consider the concept of hunger — which is still not 100% understood, yet can alter how we think and approach anything we do and impact how we reason. Most likely there are chemical messengers (hormones) that are at play in alerting the body of its need for food. So there are so many layers of “human intelligence” we have to understand before we can claim the ability to develop an intelligent machine — which is key in advancing other fields. I believe that what we currently call AI only replicates the workings of our human bodies rather than idealistic concepts like intelligence, altruism, empathy, instinct, etc. Withal, supposing the singularity occurs, the tricky thing will be the enormous difficulty to predict or know what is beyond the event. I will conclude my thoughts on the subject of the singularity with a quote from a cognitive scientist and philosopher, Daniel Dennett:
“The whole singularity stuff, that’s preposterous. It distracts us from much more pressing problems. AI tools that we become hyper-dependent on, that is going to happen. And one of the dangers is that we will give them more authority than they warrant.”
